兴业银行：预计2月CPI大幅上行至3.2%

Societe generale: CPI is expected to February greatly on step to 3.2%

Societe generale (18.92, 0.65, 3.56%) latest macroeconomic forecasting report says, 2 months year-on-year CPI could sharply upward, is expected to break through 3%.

Societe generale points out, from the historical data to see, feb. Food chain high below the Spring Festival in February is closely related to the number of days. This year the Spring Festival distribution in February, food CPI link up to 3.0% more likely. And the Spring Festival and price adjustment factors may drive the food chain can back up to 0.2%.

\"From the historical data to see, the Spring Festival in the food chain is not significantly higher than one month before the Spring Festival, only 2009 years during the crisis appeared exception.\" Societe generale said, feb. Non food chain will be finished oil prices rise driving factors, from the historical figures, year-on-year CPI traffic and CPI fuel up significant positive correlation, CPI residential ZhongShuiDian gas prices up and oil prices up positive correlation, finished product oil prices rise, the transportation fuel prices in the class, living water and electricity gas prices will also rise, and then directly promote the food price link up.

Societe generale said, because the Spring Festival dislocation, the same period last year link is only 0.1%, lower base will drive up sharply upward, is expected to 3.1 ~ 3.3% year-on-year will fall into the interval, the value is 3.2%, 1.2% rally last month.